Model Terbaik?

Siang Ka.. saya mau menanyakan masalah perhitungan manajeman laba. Model manakah yang lebih akurat dalam perhitungan manajeman laba ?

Pada dasarnya sih kita nggak mencari yang paling akurat yah. Soalnya ini kan model statistik, di mana pada dasarnya kita mengakui bahwa akan selalu ada perbedaan (error) antara model teoritis dengan data yang kita peroleh dari dunia nyata. Oleh karenanya, akurat bukan menjadi hal penting di model dan uji statistik.

Pertanyaannya mungkin kemudian, model yang terbaik? Nah, nyari model yang terbaik juga susah. Sebab kadang tujuan model ada bermacam-macam. Yang lebih oke kemudian adalah

Model yang paling cocok seperti apa?

Ada banyak model untuk pengukuran proksi manajemen laba, dengan konteks yang juga bermacam-macam. Model Jones (1991), misalnya, disusun untuk mengestimasi akrual diskresioner abnormal pada tiap perusahaan dengan data time-series. Bila kita ingin mencari akrual diskresioner abnormal perusahaan Indofood maka kita membandingkan dengan data Indofood sendiri untuk periode, katakanlah, tahun 2000 – 2015.

Di sisi lain, model Modified Jones dibangun dengan konteks data panel. Bila menggunakan model ini, kita memperoleh akrual diskresioner abnormal perusahaan Indofood tahun 2015 dengan membandingkannya pada perusahaan-perusahaan sejenis di industri yang sama.

Belum lagi

Oleh karenanya, model yang diinginkan sebaiknya adalah

model yang paling sesuai atau paling cocok dengan tujuan dan desain penelitian

Yah, perlu banyak baca berarti? Iyaa dong 🤠

The Bad Guy

Being a double-majority (Javanese, moslem), I never really cared about discrimination, SARA, and the likes. On an intellectual level, of course I knew that life is not fair. But hey, it’s not fair in favour of me. So what’s to complaint? What’s to care?

It’s not because of the lack of diversity in my life. Actually, I grew up a “minority” as a Javanese lived in Banjarmasin. So naturally, I have lots of friends whom ethnically different than me. Banjar, Dayak, Chinese, mainland Javanese, Batak, Padang, Ambon, Papua, you name it.

It’s not because of lack of experience either. When I was only 14 years old (May 1997), Banjarmasin was in riot because of a really unfortunate clash of politics and religious matters. I do choose the word unfortunate because unlike Ahok’s case, there’s actually nobody riding the wave nor intentionally cooking the brew.

You may have not heard it, but Banjarmasin riot was one of the biggest scandal of Orde Baru. All of the big shops in town was burnt and several government office plus churches were damaged. News count was about 140 people died, 120 injured, and 180 went missing. Of course, given the nature of news broadcast at the time, this number was really conservative and the true number could actually be bigger.

Heck, three days later I even saw 2 soldiers held the legendary AK-47 while guarded a church near my school. Tanks and Pansers suddenly seem to be sprouted everywhere in the city which thrives on trade. You do know that trade and show of force don’t go well hand in hand right? Yes, it was that bad. In fact, it was so bad that when the time came in 1998 to drag Presiden Suharto down his throne, nobody in Banjarmasin even lift a finger.

So, I know the ugly side of SARA. I’d seen it. Yet, it’s not until 2010 I understand how awful it is. Here the story goes.

I think every descent person ever has experienced the alay, douchey I-am-the-king-of-the-world kind of phase. No? Just me? Okay then. It manifested on many things, the most expensive being drinking overpriced coffee in a fancy, instagrammable cafe.

One day, a friend and I went into the so-called cafe that for mistery purpose shall remained nameless. It was pretty crowded that day and a foreigner about my age asked to share a table with us. After a small chit-chat courtesy of my friend, we knew that she’s from Norway and she did anthropology research in UGM. How interesting. What are you studying?

Ahmadiyah.
What?!!
Yup, I planned to go to Lombok in a couple weeks.
NOOOOO!!
Why?
It’s scary over there!! Was it really.. Ugh, I don’t know. Weren’t they like outlaws or something? They must be scary right?

That young lady only smiled, saying nothing. Yet her eyes suspiciously seem amused. “Why do you take this topic anyway?” I finally relented to my own curiousity.
“Well, it’s a serious violation of human rights.” she said with an air of extraordinary patience of someone who’s explaining obvious math to an obnoxious kid.

What?!!
Don’t you know?
No… I mean I know a bit. Uhm no, I don’t know. It’s not a big deal.
It’s a big deal in our country.
IT’S A BIG DEAL IN NORWAY?!!
Yes, your government let violence happens to minorities. It is a serious violation of human rights. Of course, it’s a big deal.

That night, I remembered all the authors and thinkers that I come to respect so much only after I’m smart enough to understand a bit complexities of the world. I realized what it must be looked like through their eyes.

I’m a textbook case of ignorance. So ignorant that I didn’t realize I was being ignorant.

I am the bad guy.

“The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.” – Albert Einstein

Just don’t make me look bad…

Excerpt from “The Smartest Guys in the Room”

…the Enron PR department decided that if Mohammed wouldn’t come to the mountain, they would have to visit Fortune. The company sent a small contingent to New York to meet with Bethany and her editors, including me. Andy Fastow, the company’s chief financial officer, led the Enron team.

 

It would later be blindingly obvious that Fastow had not told us the truth–how could he, given that much of Enron’s earnings were the result of accounting manipulations that created the illusion of profitability? But even in the moment it was clear that Fastow’s goal was pretty much the same as those financials Bethany had been poring through: to obfuscate and confuse. I can’t remember all the details, but I vividly recall Bethany asking sharp, pointed questions about the company’s business model and Fastow responding with lengthy, nearly unintelligible answers about how Enron was like Toyota, how it should be thought of as a logistic company, etc., etc.–even though Enron’s main business wasn’t actually moving anything from place to place, but rather trading.

 

And then something happened that Bethany and I would never forget. As the meeting was drawing to a close and the Enron executives were putting on their coats, Fastow turned to Bethany and said, “I don’t care what you say about Enron. Just don’t make me look bad.”

The Global Search for Education: Is Clay Christensen Ready to Disrupt Parenting? | The Huffington Post

Menarik nih.

Clay Christensen, profesor managemen Harvard yang membuat teori inovasi disruptif, cerita soal mendisrupsi parenting. 😁

Zaman dulu, waktu masih susah, keluarga berusaha bersama-sama agar bisa hidup baik. Tugas mencuci baju, misalnya, kalau malas dilakukan ya nggak ada baju besoknya. Kalau nyucinya asal-asalan ya bajunya gagal bersih. Alhasil, anak-anaknya pun belajar real skills (e.g. tanggung jawab) dari kehidupan nyata.

Zaman sekarang, kerja rumah tangga sudah berkurang banyak. Nyuci, misalnya, bisa pakai mesin, pembantu, atau laundry. Alhasil, anak fokusnya sekolah. Rencananya tentu belajar real skills juga sih di sekolah. Namun karena konsekuensinya artifisial (e.g. nilai jelek, dimarahi guru) maka banyak juga yang nggak berhasil.

Tugas pr, misalnya, kalau malas ya kerjain aja 3/4-nya. Lumayan masih bisa dapat B. Atau kalo lebih iseng lagi ya nyontek temen aja, walaupun males dan gak berusaha tapi tetep bisa dapet A. Alhasil real skills-nya nggak dapet.

Solusinya apa? Menurut Clay Christensen sih ortu perlu menciptakan “kesempatan” di mana anak-anak bisa berusaha mengatasi tantangan yang kompleks dan sulit.

“A good life is not one that is free from struggle, but one in which people have the tools to overcome what life throws at them. By that logic, a good parent is one who immerses his child in lots of small, authentic opportunities to navigate and conquer challenges.”— Clay Christensen

Source: The Global Search for Education: Is Clay Christensen Ready to Disrupt Parenting? | The Huffington Post

 

Data yang Diolah – Managemen Laba

liasaliyah

Kak saya mau tanya, Penelitian saya kan mengenai manajemen laba data yang digunakan data panel annual report thn 2011-2015. Nah untuk koefisien regresinya itu harus di hitung per perusahaan atau per seluruh data kak?

Itu tergantung pertanyaan penelitian dan desain penelitian kamu sih. Perlunya pengolahan data yang seperti apa.

Sedikit trik, tapi belum tentu berlaku di semua kondisi, adalah apa “normal” kamu? Yang dianggap normal (tidak dimanipulasi laba) itu yang seperti apa?

Kuncinya adalah suspect – nonsuspect. Mana observasian yang diperkirakan melakukan managemen laba (i.e. suspect) dan mana yang diperkirakan tidak melakukan managemen laba (i.e. nonsuspect). Yang diregresi kemudian yang nonsuspect alias normal.

Misalnya di paper Jones, Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigation (1991), dia menganggap bahwa (data) normalnya adalah (data) perusahaan itu sendiri sebelum ada investigasi untuk pembatasan impor. Berhubung normalnya adalah perusahaan itu sendiri maka yang dia regresi ya data per perusahaan, tapi yang periode investigasi itu nggak diikutkan.

Sementara ada juga penelitian lain yang menganggap bahwa yang normal adalah perusahaan sejenis (mis: satu industri) yang tidak diduga memanipulasi laba. Alhasil penelitian ini menggunakan data panel (per tahun per industri).

Selain itu ada juga model penelitian umum yang hanya bertanya apakah terjadi managemen laba dari tahun ke tahun, misalnya. Dalam penelitian ini kan nggak ada suspect-nonsuspect yah. Jadi yang diregresi ya semua data perusahaan di tiap tahun.

Begitu. Tergantung pertanyaan penelitian dan desain penelitianmu seperti apa.

Oya, sedikit soal suspect – nonsuspect ini juga saya bahas di sini http://wp.me/poL5J-ud

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